Wooldridge Source: R.C. Fair (1996), “Econometrics and Presidential Elections,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 10, 89-102. The data set is provided in the article. Data loads lazily.
data('fair')A data.frame with 21 observations on 28 variables:
year: 1916 to 1992, by 4
V: prop. dem. vote
I: =1 if demwh, -1 if repwh
DPER: incumbent running
DUR: duration
g3: avg ann grwth rte, prev 3 qrts
p15: avg ann inf rate, prev 15 qtrs
n: quarters of good news
g2: avg ann grwth rte, prev 2 qrts
gYR: ann grwth rte, prev year
p8: avg ann inf rate, prev 8 qtrs
p2YR: inf rte over 2 yr period
Ig2: I*g2
Ip8: I*p8
demwins: =1 if V > .5
In: I*n
d: =1 in 1920, 1944,1948
Id: I*d
Ig3: I*g3
Ip151md: I*p15*(1-d)
In1md: I*n*(1-d)
https://www.cengage.com/cgi-wadsworth/course_products_wp.pl?fid=M20b&product_isbn_issn=9781111531041
An updated version of this data set, through the 2004 election, is available at Professor Fair’s web site at Yale University: http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/rayfair/pdf/2001b.htm. Students might want to try their own hands at predicting the most recent election outcome, but they should be restricted to no more than a handful of explanatory variables because of the small sample size.
Used in Text: pages 362-363, 440, 442
str(fair)
#> 'data.frame': 21 obs. of 28 variables:
#> $ year : int 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 ...
#> $ V : num 0.517 0.361 0.418 0.412 0.592 ...
#> $ I : int 1 1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
#> $ DPER : int 1 0 -1 0 -1 1 1 1 1 0 ...
#> $ DUR : num 0 1 0 -1 -1.25 0 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 ...
#> $ g3 : num 2.23 -11.46 -3.87 4.62 -15.57 ...
#> $ p15 : num 4.252 16.535 5.161 0.183 6.657 ...
#> $ n : int 3 5 10 7 3 9 8 13 3 7 ...
#> $ g2 : num -1.21 -14.5 -9.78 6.04 -16.25 ...
#> $ gYR : num 6.035 -8.147 -1.009 -0.225 -14.369 ...
#> $ p8 : num 6.752 17.24 0.737 0.242 10.127 ...
#> $ p2YR : num 8.183 16.8 1.231 0.753 10.177 ...
#> $ Ig2 : num -1.21 -14.5 9.78 -6.04 16.25 ...
#> $ Ip8 : num 6.752 17.24 -0.737 -0.242 -10.127 ...
#> $ demwins : int 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 ...
#> $ In : int 3 5 -10 -7 -3 9 8 13 3 7 ...
#> $ d : int 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 ...
#> $ Id : int 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 ...
#> $ Ig3 : num 2.23 -11.46 3.87 -4.62 15.57 ...
#> $ Ip151md : num 4.252 0 -5.161 -0.183 -6.657 ...
#> $ In1md : int 3 0 -10 -7 -3 9 8 0 0 7 ...
#> $ demvote : num 0.517 0.361 0.418 0.412 0.592 ...
#> $ incum : int 1 0 -1 0 -1 1 1 1 1 0 ...
#> $ gnews : int 3 5 10 7 3 9 8 13 3 7 ...
#> $ inf : num 4.252 16.535 5.161 0.183 6.657 ...
#> $ partyWH : int 1 1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
#> $ pWHgnews: int 3 5 -10 -7 -3 9 8 13 3 7 ...
#> $ pWHinf : num 4.252 16.535 -5.161 -0.183 -6.657 ...
#> - attr(*, "time.stamp")= chr "25 Jun 2011 23:03"